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• Stephen Hill
  September 18th, 2008 at 10:54

  I really don’t belive the market will change that much in two years, in fact I think it will stay the same:

  Windows 90.3%
  Mac OS X 8%
  Linux 1%

• Siegfried
  September 18th, 2008 at 12:05

  Well, taking a look into the crystal says that Stephen Hill may be right

  what i whish is different. Although not simple. On one hand i’d like the idea of Linux getting a market share of over 90%. But you’re right, better would be a roughly equal market share of several divverent operating systems. But then, there are not only Windows, MacOS and Linux. There is BSD, and there is Haiku (The BeOS successor). That would be 5 systems, which should be enough for some time. More systems would be nice, but i think more than 10-12 different systems would not be that good. At least not if they are not interoperable.

  Last: On the other hand, as long as Linux has such a low market share, using Linux is somewheat a security feature. Most exploits will try to exploit something from the mainstream. That’s Windows. Using Linux so enhances security

• Martin Odhelius
  September 18th, 2008 at 13:54

  I hope it will be
  * Windows 1%
  * Mac OS X 2%
  * Linux 95%
  * Others 2%

  that will possibly make me unemployed, but wtf

• jens persson
  September 18th, 2008 at 21:40

  I’d say that Linux would be a little higher perhaps 5% and it will be taken from OS X, since I think that some enterprises wont migrate to Vista, and when looking at the alternatives, will move to Linux instead of OS X. I think that its on the home computers people will move to OS X.

  So my breakdown is like this:

  Windows: 75%
  OS X: 20%
  Linux: 5%

• Anders Ytterström
  September 19th, 2008 at 9:26

  Windows 50%
  Linux / *BSD 35%
  OS X 15%

  0=)

  When big firms realize they can do office stuff, manage mails, surf and do presentations with linux it could go very fast. But sadly, I dont think there is any sight of that in reality.

  Macs are to expensive to efford for most regular people, as well at work as home.

• Robert Nyman - author
  September 19th, 2008 at 10:34

  Thanks guys!

  Stephen,

  Maybe, to be realistic, Windows will continue to have a strong hold of the market for a foreseeable future.

  Siegfried,

  Absolutely, I was somewhat simplifying in regards to existing systems.

  Martin,

  Unemployed, or perhaps giving you a chance to work with things you really like!

  jens, Anders,

  Well, I think that if people let go of the mandatory Apple hardware for OS X, it could literally explode, in terms of gaining more users. Personally. I definitely regard it to be the most pleasing operating system out there.

• Jim Davis
  September 19th, 2008 at 19:58

  Having spent 35 years in corporate America I can tell you with certainty that major corporations will not change their OS, even if they get it for free. The cost to deploy and support a new OS for large companies typically makes it impossible to ever see a payback for making the change.

  I believe the consumers will, for the most part, continue to follow the lead of their workplace. If MSFT goes out of business, or is split up by the government, then the door will open to someone else that will gain the majority market share. When/if that happens will the new King Of The Hill be able to avoid the same mistakes made by Microsoft?

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